Bragging rights in Pennsylvania are on the line starting Friday night as the state’s two MLB teams face off in the Steel City with Philadelphia visiting Pittsburgh. The Pirates have been a bit better this year than expected and the Phillies a bit worse. The Bucs are slight MLB Betting favorites.
How to Bet Phillies vs Pirates MLB Lines & Game Info
- When: Friday, 7:05 PM ET
- Where: PNC Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Jake Arrieta/Jordan Lyles
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: 97.3 The Fan
- MLB Lines: Pittsburgh Pirates -110 (Total 10)
Why Bet on Philadelphia?
Shortstop Jean Segura was back in the Phillies’ starting lineup Thursday afternoon against the Dodgers. Segura had missed two starts due to a left heel injury. Third baseman Maikel Franco also had missed a couple of games hurt but returned Thursday to the starting lineup.
However, outfielder Jay Bruce has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain. Bruce strained his right oblique during a plate appearance in the third inning Tuesday night against the Dodgers and is likely going to be out for at least three weeks. He had a .825 OPS with 24 home runs and 57 RBI in 80 games this season between the Mariners and Phillies. Nick Williams has been called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley in a corresponding 25-man roster move.
Philly’s Jake Arrieta is trying to pitch the rest of the season with a bone spur in his right elbow. He yielded one run on four hits and two walks while striking out two over five innings Sunday in a no-decision against the Nationals. Arrieta breezed through the first three innings before allowing his one run of the day in the fourth on a single to right field. Arrieta lost velocity after the third inning and essentially no longer throws his cutter. He heads into Friday at 8-7 with a 4.54 ERA and 87 strikeouts over 113 innings this season.
After posting an average fastball velocity of 94.9 mph in his Cy Young Award-winning season with the Chicago Cubs in 2015, Arrieta is throwing his average heater at 92.8 mph this season. Here’s how his hard-contact rate has changed in the same span: 22.1 percent (2015), 25.2 percent (2016), 29.4 percent (2017), 27.7 percent (2018), 36.7 percent (2019). That’s not a good sign, especially for a guy earning $25 million this season.
- Runs: 4.84
- Hits: 8.25
- Walks: 3.65
- Strike Outs: 8.67
- Runs: 5.03
- Hits: 9.14
- Walks: 3.40
- Strike Outs: 8.40
Why Bet on Pittsburgh?
The Pirates are 36-20 all-time against the Phillies in PNC Park history. The Phillies and Mets are the only two National League teams the Pirates have yet to face this season.
The Bucs have gone 3-7 over their last 10 games, and have fallen 6.5 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central race. To make matters worse, good young outfielder Gregory Polanco (shoulder) has officially been pulled off his minor league rehab assignment after experiencing renewed discomfort in his surgically-repaired left shoulder. The hope had been that he would be able to return to the Pirates before the end of July, but his absence will now probably extend well into August, if not longer.
The Bucs do have 13 last at-bat wins this season, which is tied for the third-most in all of MLB along with the Red Sox. The only teams in MLB with more last at-bat wins this year are the Braves and Dodgers with 15 apiece. Last year the Pirates won 15 times in their final at-bat.
Pittsburgh’s Jordan Lyles is trying to right the ship after an ugly seven-start stretch during which he’s posted a 10.13 ERA while opponents put together a 1.051 OPS. Lyles allowed seven runs on four hits, four walks, and two strikeouts while completing only two-thirds of an inning in a loss to the Cubs on Saturday.
The great start the 28-year-old had to the season is officially gone because of two horrific outings in a row against the Cubs. Lyles has yielded 14 runs and 14 hits in his last 4.2 innings across two starts versus the Cubs, losing both games. It wasn’t too long ago that Lyles’ ERA was below 3.00, and prior to his last two starts, his ERA sat at 3.71. It’s escalated to 5.16 after these two disasters. He is 5-6 with a 1.40 WHIP, .255 batting average against and 80 strikeouts in 75 innings this season. There’s talk that Lyles could be traded by July 31, although he wouldn’t bring much back.
- Runs: 4.74
- Hits: 9.45
- Walks: 2.65
- Strike Outs: 7.81
- Runs: 5.31
- Hits: 9.14
- Walks: 3.67
- Strike Outs: 8.84
Phillies vs Pirates MLB Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 5-5 SU in Arrieta’s past 10 on the road and 5-4-1 over/under in these games
- Jordan Lyles’ team is 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 over/under in their past 10 home starts by Lyles (dating to last year with the Padres)
- Phillies are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on a Friday
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games on the road
- Pirates are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh’s last 12 games against Philadelphia
Expert Final Score Prediction for Phillies vs Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates 6